Research
UI Claims Hover at Dangerous New Normal
Daniel Zhao
Chief Economist at Glassdoor | Jul 9, 2020
Elevated unemployment insurance (UI) claims continue to show a labor market struggling to maintain its recovery. Continuing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) fell modestly to 18.1 million last week, according to the latest figures from the Department of Labor for the week ending June 27, 2020.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) for the week ending July 4, 2020 dropped to 1.3 million, seasonally adjusted, from 1.41 million. The decline in initial claims appears to be stalling out, with well over a million initial UI claims being filed every week. This level of UI claims, almost double the pre-crisis record, was unthinkable just a few months ago.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) initial claims rose to 1.04 million, non-seasonally adjusted. PUA and UI claims combined have risen for the last 4 weeks in a row. The topline UI numbers alone don't show the complete impact on the labor market, and the inclusion of PUA claims data reveals a different trend of a stalling recovery.
Although the June jobs report released last Friday showed larger than expected job gains, surging COVID-19 cases around the country raise the specter of a W-shaped recovery. The rising cases is a powerful reminder that the coronavirus is in the driver's seat—the economic recovery depends almost entirely on how quickly the public health crisis can be contained.
To speak with Daniel Zhao about today’s report or to discuss labor market trends, contact pr at Glassdoor dot com. For the latest economics and labor market updates, follow @danielbzhao on Twitter and subscribe to Glassdoor Economic Research.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) for the week ending July 4, 2020 dropped to 1.3 million, seasonally adjusted, from 1.41 million. The decline in initial claims appears to be stalling out, with well over a million initial UI claims being filed every week. This level of UI claims, almost double the pre-crisis record, was unthinkable just a few months ago.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) initial claims rose to 1.04 million, non-seasonally adjusted. PUA and UI claims combined have risen for the last 4 weeks in a row. The topline UI numbers alone don't show the complete impact on the labor market, and the inclusion of PUA claims data reveals a different trend of a stalling recovery.
Although the June jobs report released last Friday showed larger than expected job gains, surging COVID-19 cases around the country raise the specter of a W-shaped recovery. The rising cases is a powerful reminder that the coronavirus is in the driver's seat—the economic recovery depends almost entirely on how quickly the public health crisis can be contained.
To speak with Daniel Zhao about today’s report or to discuss labor market trends, contact pr at Glassdoor dot com. For the latest economics and labor market updates, follow @danielbzhao on Twitter and subscribe to Glassdoor Economic Research.Daniel Zhao
Daniel Zhao is Chief Economist at Glassdoor. On Glassdoor's Economic Research team, he has conducted research using Glassdoor's unique data on a variety of topics affecting job seekers and employers ranging from the health of the job market to pay transparency to employee engagement & retention. His work has been cited in publications like the New York Times, the Harvard Business Review and more. Prior to joining the Economic Research team, he also worked on improving the user experience for Glassdoor’s consumer jobs product and mobile app. He holds a bachelor's degree in applied mathematics and economics from Harvard College.
Tags:Unemployment
