Friday’s Jobs Report: A Tale of Two Industries

Andrew Chamberlain

Andrew Chamberlain

Andrew Chamberlain, Author at Glassdoor US | May 29, 2018

Last month the economy delivered more good news for job seekers, with unemployment hitting the lowest level since 2000 and employers adding a healthy 164,000 new jobs in April. What’s coming next for the May jobs report? Here’s what we’ll be watching for this Friday:
  • +182,000 new jobs added to nonfarm payrolls in May;
  • Unemployment rate steady at 3.9 percent;
  • Average hourly earnings up 2.8 percent from one year ago;
  • Labor force participation rate steady at 62.8 percent.
These are good times for American workers. Almost nine years have passed since the Great Recession and most scars from that harrowing chapter in U.S. history have finally healed. Back in 2009, there were six unemployed workers competing for every open job; today that ratio is one, tipping the odds in favor of job seekers. Employers are reporting acute labor shortages. And while the economy’s average wage is barely growing, more pockets of fast wage growth are appearing every month -- including jobs in e-commerce, health care and tech. While the topline numbers on job creation have been strong in 2018, there’s a lot of diversity below the surface in today’s labor market. Two industries, in particular, are on very different paths so far this year: The struggling retail industry and the recovering manufacturing sector. What’s going on with hiring in these sectors today? The figure below shows weekly snapshots of unique online job postings on Glassdoor for retail and manufacturing employers since 2017. The blue line shows retail job postings (measured on the left scale) while the green line shows manufacturing job postings (measured on the right scale). The vertical grey line marks the beginning of this year. During the past two years, overall U.S. job postings on Glassdoor have risen sharply. However, retail job postings online stagnated during most of 2017, hovering at around 800,000 open jobs. In 2018, retail hiring has slowed significantly. As of May 14, online job postings in retail are down 10.2 percent since January 1 -- a reflection of today’s troubled brick-and-mortar retail sector facing intense competition from online retailers.   By contrast, the U.S. manufacturing sector enjoyed a robust hiring boom in 2017 and online job postings on Glassdoor for the industry marched upward throughout last year. The pace of hiring has only accelerated in 2018. As of May 14, manufacturing job postings are up 18.5 percent since January 1, topping more than 250,000 open jobs online.   What’s behind the strong manufacturing hiring today? One possible driver is the recent $1.5 trillion federal tax cut, which went into effect in January. As we’ve noted before, manufacturers stand to benefit handsomely from the bill. The new tax policy was designed to give a powerful jolt to business investment by allowing companies to fully expense or “write off” the full cost of new business investment right away. Capital-intensive industries like manufacturing, energy and transportation may be already feeling the benefits of these provisions and ramping up hiring in anticipation of good economic times ahead. How long will these good times last for hiring? As of today, there is no end in sight in any of the major economic indicators. The forward-looking survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan remains strong and is up 1.8 percent from a year ago. Job openings set a new all-time record of 6.6 million in March. And although stocks have stumbled recently, the S&P 500 index is still up 12.9 percent from a year ago at the time of this writing. For now, 2018 is shaping up to be another year of steady upward progress for American job seekers. To speak with Dr. Andrew Chamberlain about this month’s jobs report or labor market trends, contact pr [at] glassdoor [dot] com. For the latest economics and labor market updates, subscribe to email alerts here and follow @adchamberlain.