Local Pay Reports: U.S. Pay Growth Slows to 2.1 Percent in May

The latest edition of the Glassdoor Local Pay Reports reveals a surprising trend in May: median U.S. base pay growth slowed to 2.1 percent year over year to $51,159 per year, according to salaries reported online to Glassdoor. While a single month doesn’t constitute a trend, this slowing pace of pay growth marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline we’ve seen. Median pay growth peaked at 3.1 percent year over year in January, but has fallen each month since -- despite a strong U.S. economy edging closer to full employment. Interestingly, we’re seeing a similar trend in the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report. As illustrated in the figure above, the BLS survey shows year-over-year gains in average hourly earnings peaked at 2.9 percent in December, falling to 2.5 percent in April. We’ll be watching Friday’s BLS jobs report closely to see if this weakening trend continues. In past research, we’ve found the Glassdoor Local Pay Reports to be closely correlated with official BLS wage growth (about a +0.74 correlation). Needless to say, with millions of U.S. job openings and a 4.4 percent unemployment rate, today’s lackluster wage growth remains a puzzle for many economists -- most of whom expect to see wages accelerating thanks to today’s red-hot labor market.

Pay Gains by Metro

Among the ten metros we track, average pay growth was fastest in Los Angeles (up 2.6 percent, to $59,371 per year), followed by New York City (up 2.3 percent, to $60,639 per year) and San Francisco (up 2.3 percent, to $67,352 per year). So far in 2017, Los Angeles has led the pack in terms of pay growth, rising an average of 3.8 percent year over year during the first five months of 2017. That’s a trend that’s helping push home prices in Los Angeles to record levels. The slowest average pay growth in May was in Houston (up 0.4 percent, to $54,182 per year). That metro has been hit hard by low energy prices, and has lagged behind U.S. average pay growth for 17 of the past 18 months. The second slowest pay growth in May was in Philadelphia (up 0.5 percent, to $53,818 per year). Our May 2017 Local Pay Reports data for all ten U.S. metros is available here.

Jobs with the Fastest Pay Growth

Here are the top ten jobs with the fastest wage growth in May, compared to a year ago:

Job Title	Median Base Pay	YoY % Growth
Recruiter	$51,216	7.4%
Customer Service Manager	$54,552	7.1%
Restaurant Cook	$29,097	7.0%
Warehouse Associate	$40,882	6.7%
Bank Teller	$28,744	6.1%
Maintenance Worker	$43,175	5.7%
Store Manager	$48,364	4.9%
Cashier	$27,492	4.6%
Sales Representative	$47,629	4.6%
Registered Nurse	$66,305	4.5%

With the economy near full employment, employers are relying more on passive job candidates, putting recruiters in high demand. Similarly, shortages of registered nurses throughout the U.S. are putting upward pressure on wages for these key health care workers. Finally, warehouse workers that are fueling the supply chain of today’s fast-growing online retailers continued to see strong pay gains in May.

Lowest Pay-Growth Jobs

Here are the ten jobs with the lowest wage growth in May, compared to one year ago:

Job Title	Median Base Pay	YoY % Growth
Design Engineer	$69,337	-2.7%
Java Developer	$71,359	-1.9%
Operations Analyst	$52,589	-1.1%
Web Developer	$63,355	-0.2%
Tax Manager	$92,370	-0.1%
Communications Manager	$66,550	-0.1%
Paralegal	$47,498	0.4%
Web Designer	$48,934	0.5%
Physical Therapist	$73,946	0.6%
Technician	$44,700	0.8%

Highest Paying Jobs

Jobs with the highest pay growth aren’t always the ones with the highest overall earning potential. Here are the jobs with the highest U.S. median base pay from our May Local Pay Reports:

Job Title	Median Base Pay	YoY % Growth
Physician	$242,371	2.1%
Attorney	$97,150	2.2%
Data Scientist	$94,859	2.2%
Tax Manager	$92,370	-0.1%
Product Manager	$90,721	2.1%
Professor	$90,274	4.4%
Software Engineer	$86,462	3.6%
Electrical Engineer	$77,152	3.1%
Physical Therapist	$73,946	0.6%
Project Manager	$73,162	1.3%

Lowest Paying Jobs

Here is a list of the ten lowest paying jobs in the May Local Pay Reports:

Job Title	Median Base Pay	YoY % Growth
Cashier	$27,492	4.6%
Bank Teller	$28,744	6.1%
Restaurant Cook	$29,097	7.0%
Retail Key Holder	$29,512	2.3%
Pharmacy Technician	$30,369	4.3%
Medical Assistant	$33,216	1.9%
Emergency Medical Technician	$34,217	2.4%
Administrative Assistant	$39,417	2.8%
Machine Operator	$40,123	2.0%
Warehouse Associate	$40,882	6.7%

You can view the full list of highest and lowest paying jobs as of May 2017 here.

How Does it Work?

Like the Know Your Worth tool by Glassdoor, Local Pay Reports incorporate millions of salaries directly collected from U.S. workers by Glassdoor and apply a proprietary machine-learning algorithm to estimate near-real-time trends in local pay for ten U.S. metros and the nation as a whole. The Local Pay Reports estimate year-over-year growth in median base salaries by job title for 60 jobs across more than 15 job categories including healthcare, technology, retail and more. The reports also estimate median base pay by industry and employer size, and provide a monthly trend of metro-level median base pay for each local market over the past four years. Our new Local Pay Reports fill an important gap in our knowledge about wage growth at the local level for specific jobs. Official BLS “Occupational Employment Statistics” are updated only once per year, and use broad occupational groupings that can be confusing for job seekers. Local Pay Reports are released monthly—using the latest data from Glassdoor—and show pay for actual job titles that are easy to understand. Read more in our full methodology and FAQs.

Monthly Jobs Report Expectations

The latest jobs report from the federal government is due out on Friday. This month, we expect to see 171,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate up slightly at 4.5 percent in May. See our full analysis for more commentary and predictions here. To learn more or subscribe to the monthly email alerts, visit: https://www.glassdoor.com/research/. The Glassdoor Local Pay Reports can be found here: https://www.glassdoor.com/research/local-pay-reports/. Press inquiries: To speak with Dr. Andrew Chamberlain about this month’s report, email pr@glassdoor.com. Follow him on Twitter: @adchamberlain.